Bitcoin surges past $62K as U.S. payroll miss dents Fed rate hike odds

Bitcoin has climbed more than 4% to briefly reclaim $62,000 after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report reduced market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike this year.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy added 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, well below economists’ expectations of 115,000. The agency also revised May’s payroll figure lower by 43,000 jobs, ending a three-month stretch in which employment growth had consistently exceeded forecasts.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate came in at 4.2%, slightly below the expected 4.3%, suggesting hiring has slowed even as the labor market remains relatively resilient.

The report sparked a rally across risk assets, with Bitcoin (BTC) surging from below $60,000 earlier in the week to more than $62,000 on July 2 before stabilizing near $61,655 at the time of writing, according to data from crypto.news. The recovery followed several sessions of weakness driven by fears that the Federal Reserve could tighten policy again after officials projected additional rate increases during last month’s policy meeting.

Softer jobs report has shifted Fed expectations

The latest labor market data immediately changed traders’ expectations for the remainder of the year. Polymarket data showed the probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 dropping to 47%, down from 54% the previous day, as market participants reassessed the likelihood of further tightening if hiring continues to lose momentum.

The move is notable because policymakers struck a comparatively hawkish tone after the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Most Fed officials projected at least one additional rate increase before year-end in their updated economic forecasts, while several policymakers expected more than one hike.

Market sentiment also received support from comments made a day earlier by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the ECB Forum. Although Warsh declined to outline the future path of monetary policy, he said inflation risks were easing, remarks that investors interpreted as reducing the urgency for another rate increase.

Expectations for the upcoming July policy meeting shifted as well. CME FedWatch data showed an 80.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged, up from roughly 72% a day earlier, indicating traders now see policymakers waiting for additional economic data before making their next move.

Bitcoin faces a critical technical test after the rebound

The macro-driven rally has pushed Bitcoin into an area that several technical analysts consider pivotal for confirming whether the recent rebound can develop into a sustained recovery.

According to analyst Ardi, Bitcoin is approaching a decisive point where reclaiming both a long-standing descending trendline and the $62,500 horizontal resistance could alter the market structure that has dominated for the past month.

“If BTC can reclaim the trendline and 62.5k horizontal resistance, that would be the first structural break from this month-long pattern. This would also be the strongest structural base throughout this entire correction, confirming the 57k low as the mid-cycle bottom.”

Bitcoin’s own chart now shows the market moving toward that test. On the 4-hour timeframe, the cryptocurrency has reclaimed the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $60,065 and climbed above the 38.2% retracement around $61,444 after briefly trading beyond $62,000. The next resistance levels sit near the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $62,559, followed by the 61.8% level around $63,673, while the 78.6% retracement near $65,260 represents the next major upside hurdle if buyers maintain momentum.

Momentum indicators have also improved. The MACD has completed a bullish crossover, with the histogram turning increasingly positive, while the Supertrend indicator remains in bullish territory around $58,541, suggesting the recent rebound continues to hold technical support.

Other market observers have also pointed to improving conditions beneath the surface. Commenting on order-flow activity, crypto analyst Ted Pillows said aggressive Bitcoin buying was taking place on Binance and OKX, while selling pressure on Coinbase had cooled, indicating stronger spot demand was emerging across major exchanges.

Not everyone, however, believes the correction is over. Crypto trader Altcoin Sherpa said Bitcoin looks constructive on lower time frames and expects altcoins to continue performing well as long as Bitcoin remains healthy. Yet, he cautioned that the current move still resembles a relief rally and said he would only become confident that the correction has ended after Bitcoin reclaims the $65,000-$70,000 range on higher time frames.