Bitcoin geared for $120K after it regained this crucial level

Bitcoin is showing signs of renewed strength after reclaiming a key technical level that historically marks the start of short-term rallies.

According to a June 25 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor İbrahim COŞAR, Bitcoin (BTC) has successfully moved back above its 50-day exponential moving average, a trend line often used to identify major shifts in market momentum.

In the past, Bitcoin’s price often increased by 10% to 20% when it dropped below the 50-day EMA during a correction and then swiftly rose above it again. It appears that the pattern is reoccurring. Bitcoin has now closed three days in a row above the 50-day EMA after momentarily falling below it, indicating that bulls may be regaining control.

COŞAR believes this could pave the way for a move toward $120,000 in the short term, though he warns that geopolitical events involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, could bring about unexpected volatility.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $106,720, up 1.4% in the past 24 hours. This represents a 7.8% recovery from its June 22 low of $98,974 when the market sold off in response to escalating Middle East tensions.

Some analysts believe that geopolitical unrest may strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term appeal as a hedge. War and inflation risks often lead to increased government spending and easing of monetary policy, conditions that tend to favor Bitcoin.

Despite the conflict, investor interest in Bitcoin has remained strong. For the eleventh day in a row, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen consistent inflows. According to SoSoValue data, total net inflows in the past week have reached $938 million, showing continued interest from investors.

On the technical side, Bitcoin is approaching the upper band around $110,100 after breaking above the 50-day EMA. If Bitcoin is able to consolidate above the $105,700–$106,000 range, this setup would point to growing bullish momentum.

At 54.69, the relative strength index is just above neutral and indicates improving momentum without yet being overbought. Shorter-term moving averages also flash “buy,” and the moving average convergence divergence has entered a bullish signal zone.

Bulls must push Bitcoin above the $108,000–$110,000 resistance level for upside momentum to continue. A daily close above $110,000 could open the door to the $114,000–$120,000 range. If momentum fades, support lies at $105,000 and stronger buying could return near $102,000 or $98,900.