Bitcoin’s downtrend may end within 12 months, says Altcoin Sherpa
Altcoin Sherpa says Bitcoin’s bear phase could end within 12 months as ETFs, macro risks and a possible capitulation shape the next accumulation zone.
Summary
- Altcoin Sherpa projects Bitcoin’s peak‑to‑bottom phase will likely conclude in less than a year, excluding the post‑bottom accumulation range.
- The analyst says a major selloff from the October peak and ETF outflows may already have marked capitulation, putting Bitcoin in early accumulation.
- Structural shifts such as US spot ETFs and macro headwinds mean this cycle may diverge from 2018 and 2022, even if the one‑year bear timing repeats.
Bitcoin market analyst Altcoin Sherpa has projected the current cryptocurrency bear phase will conclude in less than 365 days, with the digital asset potentially resuming its broader uptrend before year-end, according to analysis published on social media platform X.
The projection comes as Bitcoin trades well below its all-time high reached in October, prompting investor questions about when the cryptocurrency might establish its next bottom.
Sherpa specified the timeline refers to the move from peak to bottom and does not include the accumulation period that typically follows, according to the analysis. The accumulation phase is characterized by sideways price action with relatively low volatility and subdued trading volume, historically lasting between two and four months.
Historical data shows Bitcoin experienced major rallies in 2017 and 2021, each followed by year-long declines in 2018 and 2022, according to the analyst. Extended accumulation periods followed those drawdowns in 2019 and 2020. From peak to bottom in both the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 cycles, Bitcoin required approximately one year to complete its downward move.
Past bear markets have featured a final capitulation event—a sharp sell-off marking the end of the downtrend, according to Sherpa’s analysis. The analyst indicated a capitulation may have already occurred earlier this year, pointing to a substantial price drop as a potential final decline. If correct, the market could already be in early accumulation stages.
Sherpa stated the current decline will differ from previous patterns due to structural changes in the market. The analyst cited the growing role of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which have altered capital flow structures despite declining alongside the broader market. An extended consolidation period of approximately eight months in a prior price range was also noted, with such trading ranges often acting as support zones during pullbacks from a technical analysis perspective.
Broader macroeconomic factors including equities, metals, overall risk appetite and artificial intelligence developments remain critical variables, according to the analysis. Sherpa stated Bitcoin does not require another seven months of decline to form a bottom, suggesting accumulation may already be underway if the recent slide was the final capitulation.
The analyst acknowledged one key risk to the outlook: the possibility that a final capitulation has not yet occurred. If another significant sell-off emerges, that would be interpreted as the definitive bottoming event, with accumulation likely following for several months, according to the analysis.
