Ethereum price eyes drop to $1,650 as it forms bearish rounding top

Ethereum has weakened for a second straight session as a bearish rounding-top pattern and renewed selling pressure threaten a move toward $1,650.

According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum (ETH) was trading near $1,737 at press time, down nearly 2% over the past 24 hours after a wallet linked to a large holder transferred roughly $26.9 million worth of Ether to a centralized exchange.

The move triggered fresh profit-taking after Ethereum’s recent recovery stalled just below a major technical resistance zone between $1,800 and $1,806, where the daily Supertrend indicator and the 50-day exponential moving average converged.

Geopolitical tensions have added another layer of pressure. Oil prices climbed after fresh U.S. military action targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, reviving inflation concerns and lifting Treasury yields. Risk assets weakened across global markets as technology stocks retreated, with cryptocurrencies moving lower alongside equities.

Exchange-traded fund demand has nevertheless remained constructive. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have now posted four consecutive days of net inflows, while Coinbase Premium has continued recovering from recent lows, suggesting institutional demand has improved even as price struggles to reclaim overhead resistance.

Derivatives positioning also paints a mixed picture. According to analyst Rain, Ethereum’s recent advance has come primarily from spot buying rather than leveraged speculation.

“$ETH is up 10% this week and open interest barely moved: the actual signal,” Rain wrote on X. “Leverage ratio hasn’t recovered from June, this bounce comes from spot demand.”

Rain added that net taker volume turned positive on June 28, while roughly $76.2 million in positions were liquidated over the past day, with long traders accounting for most of the losses after ETH failed to hold above $1,800.

Ethereum technical structure favors a move toward $1,650

Ethereum’s 4-hour chart has formed a bearish rounding-top pattern after the recovery from late June stalled near $1,830. Price has already broken below the ascending trendline that supported the rally and slipped beneath the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $1,724 after repeated rejection near the 78.6% level at roughly $1,772.

Momentum indicators have also turned weaker. The 4-hour RSI has fallen to around 44 after approaching overbought territory earlier this week, while the MACD remains below its signal line with expanding negative histogram bars. If sellers maintain control, the next major technical objective sits near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at approximately $1,657, aligning closely with the projected rounding-top target around $1,650.

The daily chart offers little relief for bulls. Ethereum remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages near $1,789, $2,025, and $2,247, respectively, keeping the medium-term trend under pressure. Chaikin Money Flow has stayed slightly above zero, suggesting spot demand has not disappeared entirely, but buyers have yet to generate enough momentum to reclaim key moving averages.

CoinGlass liquidation data also identifies an important support zone between $1,700 and $1,720, where a large concentration of leveraged long positions remains. A decisive break below that range could force another wave of liquidations and accelerate a decline toward the $1,650 region.

Holding above $1,700 remains critical for bulls

Analyst Ted Pillows believes Ethereum has already lost an important technical level.

“$ETH has lost the $1,750 support zone. A daily close below the level would be really bad for Ethereum.”

A sustained close below the $1,700-$1,720 support band would strengthen the bearish setup and expose Ethereum to additional losses toward $1,650, with the June low near $1,550 becoming the next major support. Renewed geopolitical tensions, elevated bond yields, or another wave of whale selling could add further pressure if risk appetite weakens again.

The bearish outlook would lose momentum if ETH quickly reclaims the $1,800-$1,806 resistance area. A breakout above that zone would invalidate the rounding-top pattern, shift attention back to the recent high near $1,833, and improve the chances of another attempt toward the psychological $1,900 level, particularly if ETF inflows continue and leverage returns to the futures market.