TD Cowen slashes Strategy target despite Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin plan
Strategy stock has remained under pressure after TD Cowen cut its price target despite backing Michael Saylor’s latest capital strategy and maintaining a bullish rating on the company.
Summary
- TD Cowen cut its Strategy price target to $260 while maintaining a buy rating on the stock.
- The brokerage cited a weaker long-term Bitcoin outlook, not concerns over Strategy’s new capital plan.
- Investors are closely watching whether Strategy will resume Bitcoin purchases as mNAV remains below 1.0.
According to a recent TD Cowen research note, the brokerage reduced its price target for Strategy (MSTR) from $400 to $260 while keeping a “buy” rating on the stock. The firm attributed the lower valuation to a more conservative long-term outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), rather than concerns over Strategy’s newly announced Digital Credit Capital Framework.
Despite the reduction, TD Cowen said the revised target still implies roughly 200% upside from current trading levels.
The revision came a day after Strategy shares rallied more than 12% as investors reacted to the company’s latest financing framework. Although the stock gave back part of those gains in the following session, TD Cowen described the new capital plan as a positive step that could improve the company’s financial flexibility over time.
Bitcoin outlook has driven the target reduction
TD Cowen’s report separates its Bitcoin expectations from its view on Strategy’s corporate actions. Instead of questioning the company’s latest financial decisions, the brokerage lowered its valuation because it expects a weaker long-term Bitcoin price than previously forecast.
The updated assessment arrives as Strategy continues adjusting how it manages its Bitcoin treasury. In a regulatory filing dated June 29, the company introduced its Digital Credit Capital Framework, giving it the ability to raise up to $1.25 billion through Bitcoin sales.
According to the filing, proceeds could be used to maintain U.S. dollar reserves, fund preferred dividend payments, meet interest obligations, increase cash holdings, and finance future share repurchases.
Alongside the new framework, Strategy authorized the repurchase of up to $1 billion of its Digital Credit Securities, including STRC, STRF, STRD, and STRK, if management determines that buybacks would strengthen the company’s capital structure.
The company also disclosed that it has paused additional Bitcoin purchases while selling about $1.15 billion worth of MSTR shares as part of its capital management strategy.
Strategy faces new questions over Bitcoin accumulation
Attention has also turned to whether Strategy can continue expanding its Bitcoin holdings under current market conditions.
On June 28, Michael Saylor posted Strategy’s Bitcoin tracker on social media alongside the message, “We’re gonna need more charts.” Similar tracker posts have preceded previous Bitcoin purchase announcements, leading some investors to speculate that another acquisition could be disclosed.
Strategy’s most recent reported purchase came on June 22, when it acquired 520 BTC for approximately $35 million at an average price of $67,068 per coin. The purchase increased the company’s total holdings to 847,363 BTC, according to its official Bitcoin purchase tracker.
Recent market conditions, however, have complicated the company’s long-running accumulation model. As previously reported, Strategy’s mNAV has fallen below 1.0 for the first time during this market cycle, dropping to around 0.80 after Bitcoin slipped below $60,000.
Trading below the value of its Bitcoin holdings makes it harder for the company to issue new shares at a premium and use those proceeds to buy additional BTC without diluting existing shareholders.
Management has previously indicated that issuing common equity below roughly 1.22 times mNAV can become value-destructive on a per-share basis. As a result, some investors have questioned whether restoring the valuation premium should take priority over further Bitcoin purchases.
Strategy’s updated framework has also sparked criticism from some market participants because it allows limited Bitcoin monetization. Critics argue that selling Bitcoin could weigh on market sentiment, while Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has publicly criticized Strategy’s role during the recent crypto market decline.
The debate has gained additional attention because Saylor has consistently encouraged long-term Bitcoin holding even as the company evaluates new ways to manage its balance sheet.
